當前播報:Guest Opinion: Three horizons of growth in a challenging world

byMirekDusek

(相關資料圖)

Theworldiscurrentlymiredinalow-growthenvironment,withthelatestInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)forecastsprojectingglobalgrowthat2.8percentin2023and3percentin2024--ratesthatarewellbelowtheaverageoverthepastdecade.

Thisisinthecontextofotherongoingfragilitiesincludingstubborninflation,aglobaldebtcrisis,geo-economicrivalry,geopoliticalconflict,andvulnerabilitiesinthefinancialsector.

Despitethissoberingoutlook,orperhapsbecauseofit,itissocrucialnottolosesightofavenuestorelaunchgrowthandputusonafirmtrajectorytonewcompetitivenessandresilience.Inthisrespect,Iwouldliketopointtothreehorizonsofgrowthforshort-,medium-andlong-termrevitalizationoftheglobaleconomy.

REOPENEDASIANECONOMIES

AmongtheregionshardesthitbytheCOVID-19pandemic,Asiaisemergingfromaprotractedperiodofmutedeconomicactivityandlookssettoresumeitsroleastheworld"sgrowthengine.China"sreopeninghasprovidedamuch-neededboosttoboththeregionalandglobaleconomy.

ThereopeningofcrucialAsianeconomiesatlargeprovidesuswithimmediategrowthmarketswhichcanspurgrowthintheshorttermandestablishabasetoovercomethelow-growthenvironmentmovingforward.

Incomparisonwithotherregions,theAsia-Pacificisbyfarthebrightestspotforeconomicgrowth,withtheIMF"slatestestimatesprojectingtheregiontocontribute67.4percentofallglobalgrowthin2023,andwithChinaalonecontributing34.9percentofthattotal.

Theannualgrowthratefortheregionisprojectedat4.6percentfor2023,representingasignificantincreasefromthe3.8percentgrowthpostedlastyear,andisespeciallystrongasglobalgrowthprojectionsaregloomyoverall,duetoanespeciallypronouncedslowdowninadvancedeconomies.

Ofparticularimportanceistheregion"smanufacturingsector,whichplaysacrucialroleineconomicactivitiesand,toensurecontinuedgrowth,itwillhavetoadapttothechanginginvestmentandconsumptionappetitesaffectedbythisperiodoftransition.

NEWGENERATIONOFENTREPRENEURSHIP,INNOVATION

Inspiteofglobaleconomicfragilities,newideas,approaches,andmindsetsinherenttoentrepreneurshipandinnovationcanspurthemomentumneededtocreatemoreequitable,sustainable,andresilientgrowthmodels.Weshouldalsorememberthatmanysuccessfulcompanieswerebornoutofadversityandattimesofcrisis.

Itisthusimportantthateveninthecurrentchallengingeconomiccontext,continuousfundinghasbeenflowingtodigitalandgreenindustries,whicharetwoessentialcomponentstosuccessfullybringinginnovationtomarket.

Atamacroeconomiclevel,itisestimatedthat70percentofallnewvaluecreatedintheglobaleconomyoverthenextdecadewillbebasedondigitallyenabledplatformsandbusinessmodels,whiletherapiddevelopmentandadoptionoffrontiertechnologies,includingartificialintelligence(AI)andquantumcomputing,willhavesignificantimpactsacrossallsectorsoftheeconomy.

Asanexample,despiteaslowdowninglobalventurecapitalfundingoverall,fundingforcompaniesengagedwithAIhasexpandedsignificantlyandrepresentedabout13percentoftotalnewfundinginMay.

Tradeingreengoods,meanwhile,reachedarecord1.9trillionU.S.dollarsin2022andwillcontinuetodrivegrowthandnewjobs.Activitiesbasedonthegreeneconomymustcontinuetoaccelerateoverthemediumtermasmuchworkremainstobedone.

AccordingtotheInternationalEnergyAgency,over40percentoftheemissionsthatneedtobecuttoreachnetzerobetween2050and2070mustbeaddressedwithtechnologiesnotcurrentlybeingimplementedatscaleandareintheearlyadoptionphase.Thispresentsasignificantopportunityforbothbusinessactivityandpublicpolicytobere-orientedtowardssustainability,creatingpositivegrowthtrajectories.

REWIREDCOOPERATION

Overthelongerterm,theonlywayfortheworldtopropelitselfoutofthelow-growthenvironmentisthroughcooperation.Theglobalgeopoliticalenvironmentisexperiencingstrongheadwindsanddemonstratingatendencytowardsincreasedfragmentationandpolarization.

Ultimately,however,theworldneedseffectiveandproductivecooperationtoallowfortrade,investment,andtheexchangeofideastoachieveandsustaingrowth.

Thecostsofrejectingcooperationaretoohigh.ArecentanalysisbytheIMFputthelong-termcostsofseverefragmentationatalmost7percentofglobaloutputandhighlighteddisruptionintrade,asthatwouldpotentiallyimpactgloballivingstandardsasseverelyasCOVID-19.Whilewewillcertainlycontinuetohaveourdifferences,persistingwithcooperationwillsecureourfuture.

Allofthesetopicswillbeatthecoreoftheagendaforthe14thAnnualMeetingoftheNewChampions,alsoknownastheSummerDavosForum,innorthChina"sTianjinMunicipalityonJune27-29.

Editor"snote:MirekDusekisWorldEconomicForumManagingDirectorresponsibleforglobalprogramming.

TheviewsexpressedinthisarticlearethoseoftheauthoranddonotnecessarilyreflectthepositionsofXinhuaNewsAgency.

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